I have been asked by foreign journalists several times over the last few days on whether I think the Turkish election that took place at the start of November was rigged. It’s an emotionally loaded question, and should be treated rationally. So I can give you some numbers:

While the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) maintained its votes compared to the June 7 elections, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the (Kurdish) Peoples’ Democracy Party (HDP) lost 2 million and 1 million votes, respectively. Two small parties that had entered the elections together in June got 300K less this time. There were also 1.3 million additional votes compared to June. Of this, 600K were due to new votes (of which 200K were new registered voters). There were also 700K less invalid votes. Interestingly, more than half of the additional votes were from Istanbul, where the share of invalid votes shrank significantly.

If you do the math, all of this adds up to the 4.5 million extra votes the Justice and Development Party (AKP) got compared to June 7. In other words, it could be that the AKP got all the possible votes it could; most of the defections from other parties as well as the additional votes. Add in other possible factors, such as the speed of the vote count and early victory declarations in the pro-government media, and you can see why people are suspicious.

However, the independent election monitoring initiative Vote and Beyond (Oveo) has stated that minor discrepancies between its own reports and the official results had no bearing on the final outcome. They were present in 50,000-60,000 of the 175,000 ballot boxes. But what about the two thirds of total votes they didn’t monitor? After all, I would assume that their presence is not random, no matter how hard they tried.

The economist Erik Meyersson has analysed the election. He has found that, while the MHP’s votes seem to have been adversely affected, “the AKP and HDP vote counts also show evidence consistent with some form of tampering,” especially outside the largest five provinces. “The CHP vote count, on the other hand,” he writes, “shows predominantly little change across the different tests.”

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Read Erik Meyerson’s analysis:

Digit Tests and the Peculiar Election Dynamics of Turkey’s November Elections

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Meyersson underlines that “this analysis shows evidence that would be consistent with widespread voting manipulation, not proof of it.” I personally don’t see any major problems with his methodology, although a couple of statisticians I spoke to were very critical. But if nothing else, his analysis should lead us to more work. I would especially want him to conduct his tests separately for the Oveo and non-Oveo ballot boxes.

I’ll let Meyersson conclude: “Sunday’s landslide victory by the AKP represents a remarkable comeback for a government that, according to the overwhelming majority of polling companies, looked set to repeat its June loss. Many are now pointing fingers at these pollsters (and analysts overall), asking how they could have been so wrong. But what if they weren’t?”

Emre Deliveli is a Turkish economist and columnist for Hürriyet Daily News

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/was-the-turkish-election-rigged-a6724226.html

]]> https://chpbrussels.org/2015/11/06/was-the-turkish-election-rigged/feed/ 0 Independent chpbrussels https://chpbrussels.org/2015/11/02/turkishparliamentaryelections_nov/ https://chpbrussels.org/2015/11/02/turkishparliamentaryelections_nov/#respond Mon, 02 Nov 2015 14:43:42 +0000 http://chpbrussels.org/?p=1241 Continue reading →]]>

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CHP President Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s press meeting on the elections: 

Turkey’s Republican People’s Party (CHP), which had entertained hopes of making gains through a constructive election campaign, failed to increase its votes significantly in the Nov. 1 polls, remaining the country’s main opposition party.

The leader of the social democrat party, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, said late on Nov. 1 after the annoucement of the initial results that the responsibility on the party’s shoulders had incerased.

The country faced a second election under extraordinary conditions between the June 7 election and the reelection on Nov. 1.

“Some 400 people died in this period,” he said. “This should be evaluated very carefully.”

Responding to question on whether he would resign, Kılıçdaroğlu said the executive bodies of the party would decide on the matter, praising the CHP for “bringing democracy to the country.”

A senior official from the party told Reuters while the votes were being counted that there was no likelihood of a coalition government.

The party, which succeeded in becoming the first party in just six provinces out of 81 across the country, won 135 of 550 seats, according to initial results.

The CHP won 131 seats with a little less than 25 percent of the votes in the June 7 elections that resulted in a re-election after no parties were able to form a one-party or coalition government.   The party increased its votes in Istanbul, the largest city in the country, by two points to 30 percent but still won only 28 MPs, the same number as the election five months ago. The party ran its campaign on economic promises. (Hurriyet Daily News)

The number of female deputies representing the four political parties in the Turkish parliament has dropped from a record number of 95 to 81, the unofficial results of the Nov. 1 snap elections have revealed.

Accordingly, some 21 seats occupied by female deputies from the Republican People’s Party (CHP) will still be held by women when the 26th term of parliament opens following the announcement of the official results by the Supreme Election Board (YSK).

Yet, the other three parties will have less female deputies when compared to the 25th term of parliament, which opened after the June 7 parliamentary elections and served for only five months.

The Justice and Development Party (AKP), which managed to win a landslide victory sufficient to form a single-party government, will have 34 women lawmakers, while this number was 40 after June 7. The number of women deputies from the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) dropped from 30 to 23, while the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) has again come up with the least number of women deputies, with a decrease from four to three. (Hurriyet Daily News)

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Turkey election: OSCE says ‘serious concerns’ over vote

European observers have said violence marred the run-up to polls in Turkey in which the Justice and Development Party (AKP) regained its majority.
The OSCE said that an increase in violence, particularly in the south-east, “restricted some contestants’ ability to campaign freely”.
It also criticised curbs on media freedom.

Turkish election campaign was unfair

Earlier Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on the world to respect the result of Sunday’s election.
Meanwhile, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) went further and denounced the entire process as “unfair”.
In a statement on Monday, Ignacio Sanchez Amor, head of the OSCE observer mission, said: “Physical attacks on party members, as well as the significant security concerns, particularly in the south-east” had affected campaigning.
He added that pressure on journalists – including a police raid on the Koza-Ipek media group in Istanbul last week – was a major concern.
“Unfortunately, the campaign for these elections was characterized by unfairness and, to a serious degree, fear,” said Andreas Gross, Head of the PACE delegation.

Responding to reports of pressure on journalists, the White House spokesman John Earnest said the US had urged Turkey “to uphold universal democratic values.”

By BBC Monitoring

Download the OSCE Statement of Preliminary Findings and Conclusions